Revolutionising sustainability using a new triplet

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and/or Revolutionising sustainability using a new triplet that is proposed to be made of a system dynamic model as described in this writeup published on Science Direct reiterates the vital need for sustainability in every human endeavour dynamics with “Adaptability, Affordability and Availability” at all times in mind.

The image above is for illustration – Credit:  Science Direct

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Revolutionising sustainability using a new triplet: A system dynamic model

Highlights

  • Complexity of interdisciplinary systems is crucial for a sustainable ecosystem.
  • Interconnections between the sustainability triangle has been comprehensively analysed using a new triplet approach/model.
  • A system dynamic model using 3As (Adaptability, Affordability, Availability) is developed.
  • Each “A” as a system is simulated to determine its impacting inflows and outflows.
  • The developed model serves as a tool for the industries to improve system dynamic complexity.

 

Abstract

The theory of sustainability has been analysed and implemented in various sectors to minimise the consumption of limited resources and to consume the fullest potential of existing resources. The triple-bottom concept of sustainability covers all possible interactions within an ecosystem. However, the dynamic nature and interconnectivity of sustainability systems, such as the environmental, economic, and social systems, are quite complex to curb sustainability challenges. The modification in one system may create disturbances in other systems. Based on the existing studies on sustainability, this study explored how these systems can be optimised by analysing the relationship between each side of sustainability triangle by 3As, i.e., Adaptability, Affordability and Availability, to determine their impacting macro and micro flows. The reinforcement can be achieved between social-environment by adaptability, social-economics by affordability and economics-environment by availability. These 3As synergise sustainability systems if inflows and outflows in sustainability systems are optimised. The system dynamic approach was adopted to model and examine all possible 3As’ inflows and outflows comprehensively in urban ecosystems. Micro flows are analysed for the associated macro flows for each factor of triplet. The results suggest that although sustainability systems are complex but not wicked in nature, it is required to focus on macro and micro flows of adaptability, affordability and availability in each system. This study may serve as a source of information for improving and maintaining sustainability in industries, businesses and the policy makers to optimise their existing resources on this comprehensive triplet model.

Introduction

The concept of sustainable development has been associated with the Brundtland Commission Report (1987) and has since been at the forefront of the UN’s policies towards sustainable development (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987). The 17 UN SDGs were developed in 2015 by global leaders as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations, 2018). The focus of these goals was to encompass environmental, economic, and social factors focused on their integrated approach towards sustainable development across the globe.

Arguably the progress towards achieving these goals has been under scrutiny and criticism for not being able to meet the designated targets (Spangenberg, 2016; Kroll et al., 2019). The criticism for not being able to achieve SDGs as designated has been credited to a diverse variety of factors and challenges. These challenges are addressed as Interconnectedness and Complex Nature (Wu et al., 2022), Lack of Resources (McMichael, 2017; Patole, 2018), Marginalisation and Inequality (Carant, 2016; Freistein and Mahlert, 2016) and Global Cooperation (Florini and Pauli, 2018). Therefore, there is a need to establish new paradigms for achieving sustainable development goals and strengthen the interrelationship between the three pillars of sustainability to foster progress towards the achievement of the SDGs in an effective manner. It will empower a robust, resilient, and befitting approach towards accomplishing the targets of the UN SDGs by systematically enhancing the interrelationship between the three pillars of sustainability, i.e., social, economic, and environmental.

It is worthy to understand that the complex and dynamic nature of the factors involved in implicating sustainability needs a better understanding for effectively accomplishing the targets set by the UN SGDs. The role of the System Dynamic Model (SDM) is integral in visually stimulating the complex system of sustainability and provides a better understanding of developing new mechanisms that unanimously contribute towards achieving overall sustainability without hindering the progress of any of the goals (Honti et al., 2019). For the said reasons, the following factors can be utilised through the development of a robust SDM based on their impact on achieving sustainability:

The scenario-testing mechanism and simulating abilities of SDMs are instrumental in analysing and testing different policies and strategies to enhance sustainability (Bastan et al., 2018). The incorporation of the “adaptability” factor in SDMs will provide a systematic understanding of the changing interventions of various factors in the system and their mutual implications on the behaviour of the system. It will be strategically integral in thoroughly identifying potential policies and strategies that can systematically bear unforeseen changes and effectively withstand uncertainties, leading to long-term sustainability.

Affordability is regarded as one of the most prominent aspects of implementing sustainability strategies (Hoover et al., 2020). SDMs can effectively use simulations to identify the economic feasibility of strategies and policy interventions to provide insight to decision-makers for analysing and identifying the financial feasibility of interventions in the system (Mareeh et al., 2022). It will ensure that the strategies or policies are not only focused on sustainability but are also affordable for widespread implementation to seek long-term sustainability.

The availability of adequate services, resources, finances, and opportunities can be pivotal in the overall accomplishment of SDG targets (Shen et al., 2009; Schwerhoff and Sy, 2017). SDMs can simulate the availability aspect of resources across the system and devise relevant strategies or intervention policies to ensure that resources are adequate for long-term sustainability accomplishment (Pallant and Lee, 2017). In this manner, availability can be traced and analysed through the complex nature of SDGs and subsequently, relevant policy frameworks can be developed.

The study by Wang (2023) provides unique perspectives into the complexities of post-disaster environmental consciousness, highlighting the impact of social interactions and regional environmental variables. Furthermore, Zeng et al. (2022) broaden the conversation about sustainability and resilience in urban areas by proposing important indicators that are critical for assessing and managing risk in rapidly urbanised ecosystems.

The literature supports the association of systems’ ecological sustainability with the application of SDM. Vogt and Weber (2019) challenge prevalent misunderstandings about sustainability, notably in seven aspects, i.e., political, economic, socio-economic, cultural, environmental, theological, and democratic domains. The findings further lead to a deeper comprehension and emphasis on the significance of planetary sustainability ethics and indicates the inclusion of a multidimensional understanding and complex nature of sustainability achievement. Furthermore, the study by Nishant et al. (2020) contends that AI’s environmental sustainability promise rests not only on reducing resource consumption but also on promoting thorough environmental governance, further pondering that implementing AI for sustainability calls for implementing effective approaches like SDM to encapsulate its implementation holistically. Dale and Newman (2009) studied the relationship between sustainability and affordability while focusing on housing projects in Canada and found that affordability is crucial for ensuring that sustainable housing projects become a success, it indicates that affordability is closely grounded in the social and economic aspect of sustainability by offering low-cost and socioeconomic equality-orientated approach.

The studies conducted by Folke et al. (2002), Fiksel (2006), Magis (2010), and Zeng et al. (2022) indicate that resilience and adaptability play a vital role in achieving sustainability and plays a vital role in bridging the social and environmental pillars of sustainability. Furthermore, Chaudhary et al. (2018), Ghisellini et al. (2016), Khan et al. (2022), Wan et al. (2022) showed through their studies that sustainability can be thoroughly achieved with a focus on environmental and economic pillars by ensuring availability of resources and their responsible consumption to ensure their long-term availability, i.e., indicating that availability plays a vital role in strengthening the economic and environmental pillars of sustainability.

The proposed concept of developing 3As model using SDM is novel in nature as compared to the existing literature on systems’ ecological sustainability. Amadei (2021) developed a systems dynamic model based on the dynamics and interconnectedness nature of nexus between sustainability and peace, indicating that peace being an imperative sustainability aspect, i.e., SDG-16, itself has a complex nature, calling for SDM to be applied for understanding varying inflows and outflows that needs to be addressed to achieving sustainability and peace. Furthermore, Chaudhary and Vrat (2018) conducted a study on gold recovery from mobile phones in India using SDM and highlighted the social, environmental, and economic benefits that can be achieved through this approach by providing strategic policy highlights and recommendations to achieve sustainability in India using gold recovery from mobile phones. Similarly, Dural-Selcuk and Vasilakis (2021) conducted a study to assess the sustainability of healthcare systems with regard to population ageing based on empirical data and indicated that SDM can be utilised in an effective manner to promote and achieve SDG-3, i.e., good health and well-being. However, these studies lack potential insights for providing a unilateral approach to understand sustainability from all three dimensions in a holistic manner.

Similarly, the study conducted by Francis and Thomas (2022b) focused on integrating Multi-Criteria Decision Modelling (MCDM) along with SDM for understanding sustainability-orientated policies and decision-making in the built environment. However, the study does not consider the human behaviour aspect and focuses solely on considering the built environment as a physical entity, further indicating a gap for introducing other quantitative factors to ascertain social sustainability through SDM and MCDM. Additionally, the study by Francis and Thomas (2022a) focused on Dynamic Lifecycle Sustainability Assessment (D-LCSA) using a case study of a residential project in India and found that disregarding the dynamic nature of factors impacting sustainability assessment of the built environment results in 50% and 12% error in sustainability and environmental impacts. However, the study only focuses on environmental factors and does not consider the social and economic factors due to non-availability of data and fails to address the gap of undertaking a comprehensive and holistic analysis of sustainability through all three dimensions.

Therefore, introducing another triplet “3As”, i.e., Availability, Affordability, and Adaptability into the existing triple bottom sustainability triangle, through SDM can be a significant contribution to achieving the devised targets set by the UN SDGs to be achieved by 2030. Policymakers and decision-makers can thoroughly seek systematic and in-depth insights from the application of SDM through the lens of the 3As approach towards sustainability to develop policies and interventions that are feasible, resilient, robust, befitting, and equitable, enabling a global and unanimous approach towards long-term sustainable development.

Section snippets

Three pillars of sustainability

Sustainability has become a popular concept in recent decades, attracting scholars and practitioners to ponder for better solutions. There are three pillars of sustainability i.e., social, economic and environmental also referred to as the triple bottom line (TBL) approach. Sustainability is the integration of these pillars in human life to preserve natural sources for the current and future generations. All of these pillars of sustainability are interconnected and each of them is very crucial

Methodology

In order to develop the conceptual model of the 3As model, the conducted literature review suggested that SDM is a technique that is adopted extensively to model the interconnectivity relationships between the dynamic ecological systems components. SDM considers a system comprising a stock(s) and based on the available data of that particular stock, macro and micro flows effecting that stock are programmed and simulated. Ecological systems are dynamic but intertwined, disturbance in a single

Results

The data analysis was grounded in the extensive literature review conducted by the researcher and supported by the application of the SDM. The in-depth analysis of the literature provided compelling insights into understanding the role of the 3As in strengthening the relationship between the three pillars of sustainability. Nevertheless, the findings of the data gathered are provided in Table 4, Table 5, Table 6 for adaptability, affordability, and availability with relevant inflows and

Discussion

This conceptual study reveals that a triple bottom sustainability approach is required to be elaborated based on the interconnectivity between the sustainability triangle components. It is quite challenging to develop innovative solutions for the ecological systems without analysing the comprehensive relationship between the environmental, economic and social aspects of sustainability. Achieving sustainability goals are not justified by just focusing on environmental, economic and social

Conclusions

Sustainability triangle is a niche since the realisation of keeping the natural resources for future generations. Systems claiming as sustainable systems must be aligned with the three components of sustainability including social, economics and environmental aspects. Systems are dynamic and complex, it is required to manage this complexity by a comprehensive model which is not subjective. This study contributes to the existing literature of sustainability science with a new triplet in addition

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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The Looming Climate and Water Crisis in the MENA region

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The Looming Climate and Water Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa

Source: Getty
Summary:  Addressing water scarcity and improving water management will be immensely important for ensuring the region’s stability, sustainability, and well-being in the face of a changing climate.

INTRODUCTION

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is naturally prone to being hot and dry, in stark contrast with the rest of the world. The region’s arid climate is the primary contributor to its perennial state of water scarcity. When coupled with the region’s limited freshwater supplies and growing demand for water, virtually all MENA countries are facing elevated levels of water stress. The amplifying effects of climate change threaten to increase the gap between water supply and water demand in the region by exacerbating drought conditions. The longer-term consequences of water scarcity that increase this imbalance extend beyond insufficient water availability. Concerns over water quality, critical water infrastructure, and transboundary water cooperation may also compound the region’s existing socioeconomic challenges.

THE CURRENT STATE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

The MENA region has been widely acknowledged as the most water-stressed region in the world. In fact, according to data from 2019, sixteen of the twenty-five most water-stressed countries in the world can be found in this region (with Bahrain ranked as the world’s most water-stressed country). In this context, water stress is defined as the gap between water supply and water demand for each given country, meaning that the most water-stressed nations are utilizing nearly all of their available water supplies, and any fluctuations to water supply with respect to meeting water demand could trigger periods of water shortage.

Although the MENA region is generally recognized as water-stressed, different parts of the region experience water stress differently. The differences in water vulnerability between countries in the region are highly correlated to the level of access each country has to a range of water resources, both from freshwater and nonconventional water supplies. For example, access to renewable supplies from surface water systems (such as rivers) can place nations at an advantage to countries that have limited ability to draw on freshwater sources (which also include groundwater extracted from subsurface aquifers). Conversely, countries that have extremely limited opportunities to leverage the use of freshwater supplies can mitigate this risk by greatly expanding their utilization of nonconventional water resources (such as desalination and water recycling). Being able to do so is contingent on a country’s financial and development capacity to invest and build water infrastructure that can augment its existing water sources with nonconventional water supplies.

The mostly arid climate and predominantly flat, desert landscape of MENA is not a naturally favorable environment for large surface water systems borne from high-elevation headwaters, but there are a few major exceptions. The Nile River provides a critical water supply to all of its basin states, most especially its two most downstream arid riparians, Egypt and Sudan (which together account for nearly 90 percent of annual water withdrawals from the Nile). In many ways, the Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt: 99 percent of Egypt’s population resides along the floodplain and banks of the river, and the Nile Delta (Egypt’s most fertile region) accounts for 63 percent of Egypt’s agricultural lands.

Much of the recent tensions in the Nile River Basin have centered on the Blue Nile segment of the river, which originates from highland headwaters in Ethiopia and provides 83 percent of the Nile’s annual volume. The construction and subsequent fillings of the hydropower-generating Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has put Ethiopia’s energy security goals at odds with Egypt’s and Sudan’s critical need for the Nile’s water resources. The lack of transboundary cooperation among these three nations on how to manage the Blue Nile conjunctively with respect to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and other water infrastructure—especially under prolonged drought conditions brought on by climate change—will likely result in further unilateral actions that could threaten the viability of the Nile as a water resource for all riparians.

The Tigris-Euphrates River System is another river basin that suffers from transboundary water-sharing challenges. Originating from the mountains of eastern Türkiye, both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers travel through Syria and most of Iraq before merging together to form the Shatt al-Arab, which terminates in the Arabian Gulf. Much like the Blue Nile segment of the larger Nile River, the water issues in the Tigris-Euphrates River System are associated with consequences of upstream water-use operations on downstream riparians. Prolonged drought conditions in this basin (which have been exacerbated by warming from climate change) have led to a zero-sum game of competing water management needs among the riparians. Türkiye, where the headwaters of both rivers originate, has been moving forward with its own water development projects to secure as much as possible of this surface water resource for its own water security. These projects have had the most negative impact on Iraq, the most downstream riparian in this basin. As a cumulative effect, Türkiye’s dam construction projects have reduced Iraq’s water supply from the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers by 80 percent since 1975. Iran, which contributes to the Tigris-Euphrates River System with tributaries that originate from within its borders, has also pursued dam construction projects that have further reduced the tributary flow into the river system. Future projections estimate that by 2025, the flows of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers will decrease by 25 percent and 50 percent, respectively. The consequences of this diminished river flow are already detrimental for Iraq, resulting in a lack of sufficient potable water in the city of Basra near the river system’s outlet to the Arabian Gulf.

At the root of the water management challenges in the Tigris-Euphrates River System is the lack of binding multilateral agreements between all the riparians of this river system: Türkiye, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The presence of such a set of agreements that includes all riparians could encourage transboundary cooperation, which would disincentivize the current state of unilateral water operations that disproportionately harm downstream riparians. A number of agreements already have been put into place within this basin, but these have been bilateral in nature between only a couple of the riparians and have had broad stipulations on cooperation. Examples include the 1987 Protocol on Economic Cooperation between Türkiye and Syria (an interim agreement on water quantity to be released at the Syrian-Turkish border) and the 1990 Syrian-Iraqi Water Accord (to allocate the water of the Euphrates between Syria and Iraq). To date, water negotiations between Iraq and Iran on shared tributaries have yielded no tangible agreements. Without cooperation between these riparians—especially between the upstream nations of Türkiye and Iran with Iraq—the water quantity and quality of this basin will continue to decline to dangerous and potentially irreversible levels.

Southwest of the Tigris-Euphrates River System is the Jordan River, a surface water basin with headwaters in the Anti-Lebanon Mountains bordering Syria and Lebanon. The river flows southward through Lake Tiberias and pools into the Dead Sea. Although tributaries from Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Israel and the West Bank feed into the river, water-sharing of the Jordan River is primarily a management issue between Jordan and Israel. Increasing aridification as a consequence of drought has been a key driver in the large reduction in flow of the Jordan River, with estimates of current flow being equal to 10 percent of the river’s historical average. Less streamflow into the river from the headwaters has translated into shrinking water levels for both Lake Tiberias and the Dead Sea.

But a reduced water supply is not the only factor compromising this surface water basin. The water quality in the Jordan River and of the two lakes that are part of the system (Tiberias and the Dead Sea) has progressively declined to a state that could cause water from this basin to become unusable without extensive and costly water treatment or desalination. Rising salinity and pollution in the Jordan River are byproducts of sewage and solid waste being discharged into the river and irrigation water runoff draining into the river from nearby farms. Irrigation water runoff entering the Jordan River is highly saline because of the salt leached from crops during irrigation, and it contains chemical contaminants from pesticides applied to crops. This contamination not only threatens the water quality of the Jordan River but also is a risk to nearby groundwater aquifers, into which these pollutants may seep and infiltrate.

Though surface water systems are limited, groundwater aquifers are much more prevalent across the region. As such and historically, groundwater has been a key source of freshwater supply in the region, especially in areas with no access to surface water, including the Arabian Peninsula and the Gaza Strip in Palestine. The most prominent example of groundwater utilization and extraction in the region is Libya’s Great Man-Made River Project, a large-scale water infrastructure project borne out of Libya’s dependency on groundwater and lack of surface water supplies. This historical overreliance on groundwater resulted in the overpumping of coastal aquifers near major Libyan cities in the northern part of the country, prompting the need to transport water from further aquifers in the south. The Great Man-Made River Project would become the means of this water conveyance. Originally, the project was justified as a more cost-effective alternative to desalination, but the scale of the project has made it costly in terms of construction, maintenance, and energy consumption to pump and distribute the extracted groundwater. Furthermore, project expansion and upkeep have been threatened by unreliable financial support and security risks from vandalism and crime. Ultimately, groundwater is a finite resource, which presents the question of what happens to a huge, costly project like the Great Man-Made River Project when the aquifers on which it relies are no longer sustainable.

With the inclusion of alternative non-conventional water supplies across the region, primarily desalination, groundwater has been mainly used to satisfy drinking water and irrigation needs. But even with a diversity of water supply sources available, this resource is still very much at risk of overdraft, as the regional extraction of groundwater far exceeds the natural and artificial replenishment of exploited aquifers. Much of the challenge of managing groundwater is associated with several primary issues. First, there is not sufficient information or adequate quality of data to accurately determine how much groundwater is stored in the region’s aquifers. Irregular monitoring and tracking of groundwater extraction, as well as the replenishment of these aquifers, all contribute to this lack of data. This is an issue across MENA, as on-the-ground monitoring networks in this region are not as robust as in other parts of the world, necessitating a greater reliance on satellite information or modeling data. Second, as an extension of the lack of information issue, there is little to no regulation of groundwater aquifers in the region, which makes managing and sharing transboundary aquifers even more difficult. Usually, nations that share mutual aquifers do not have conjunctive management operations.

The most important water augmentation innovation that has buffered the countries of the region against limited freshwater supplies and water stress is desalination. Although most MENA coastal nations have active desalination plants, none of the countries in the region are as reliant and dependent on desalination as the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. Nearly half of the world’s freshwater desalination (45 percent) occurs in the Arabian Gulf, with several GCC members sourcing nearly 90 percent of their drinking-water needs from desalination.

The use of desalinated water has enabled the GCC and other countries in the region to help bridge the gap in the imbalance between their water supplies and water demands. But the construction, operation, and maintenance of water desalination plants is a costly, lengthy (in terms of design and construction), and energy-intensive enterprise. And while the financial resources of the GCC states, and their dire need for water resources in extremely water-scarce environments, make desalination a palatable water acquisition strategy, other countries in the region may not have the capacity and capital to follow suit. Additionally, concerns have been raised as to the environmental impact of this level of desalination activity in the region—especially in the Arabian Gulf—because of the volume of concentrated brine discharge that is released back into the source water body of the desalinated water. But recent research has indicated that the Arabian Gulf is not under risk of elevated salinity caused by the discharge of brine from the many desalination plants along the Gulf’s coast. Even though the research studies denote that this finding may be true in the Arabian Gulf for the coming decades, there is still some uncertainty if this finding could remain valid further into the future with an increased number of and expanded capacity of desalination plants along its coast.

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON REGIONAL CLIMATE

According to the Koppen Classification System, most of the MENA climate can be described as a hot desert environment that is consistent with a dry climate zone. Thus, as a region it is naturally prone to aridity, little rainfall, sparse vegetative land cover, and higher average annual temperatures, especially during the summer period where temperature extremes are more pronounced than other parts of the world. These conditions already have put the MENA region in a natural environmental state that increases the likelihood of extreme water scarcity. However, the accelerated advent of climate change has added a layer of complexity when it comes to the region’s climate and its water resources.

Over the past decade, the growing impacts of climate change in MENA countries have been adverse, with direct implications for the reliability of the region’s water supply and infrastructure to satisfy its various types of water demand. The primary climate impact that drives several implications associated with water insecurity is extreme heat and warming. In recent years, the Middle East, a region already experiencing significantly warmer temperatures than most of the rest of the world, has seen an elevation of daily temperature highs above the historical average for the region. Progressively, during the summer periods in the past several years, a number of countries and cities in the region have broken historical records for daily temperature highs. For example, in July 2023, the Persian Gulf Airport in Iran registered a heat index of 152°F (the heat index being a metric that couples the effect of humidity with air temperature to gauge the perceived heat that humans experience). This extreme level of heat coincided with the hottest month ever recorded, where the global average temperature record was broken and set three times over a span of four days (from July 3 to 6).

Even as climate change has increased air temperatures in the region, a similar effect has been occurring in the surrounding oceans and seas. A corresponding rise in sea surface temperatures has yielded dangerous outcomes with regard to extreme weather. Warmer oceans and seas tend to generate more extreme weather in the form of severe thunderstorms and even cyclones. And while precipitation and rainfall can be considered boons for a mostly dry and arid region like MENA, the intensity of rainfall, winds, and subsequent flooding from these storm events can be catastrophic.

Heavy rainfall events that have produced expansive flooding have been occurring with more frequency in MENA. This is especially the case for the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, an area surrounded by the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, two water bodies that experience significant warming during the summertime owing to their proximity to the equator. These heavy thunderstorms and corresponding floods have particularly afflicted the countries in the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula: Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. And while these types of storms have been most pronounced along the southern coastline of the Arabian Peninsula, severe weather has even made it as far inland as Mecca, Saudi Arabia.

In extreme cases, these types of storms are intense enough to be categorized as tropical cyclones. Such severe storms can cause catastrophic flooding that results in substantial infrastructure damage and fatalities. The frequency of these types of tropical cyclones forming in the Indian Ocean and making landfall at a high level of severity is relatively low, but they do occur to devastating effect. Both Oman and Yemen have been the primary recipients of these tropical cyclones. In 2021, Cyclone Shaheen made landfall in Oman as a severe cyclonic storm. The heavy rainfall, excessive flooding, and high winds of the cyclone caused serious damage to infrastructure and a considerable death toll. With the likelihood of increased global warming in the future, tropical cyclones may form and make landfall at greater frequency and intensity, with the potential of traveling further inland than the southeastern coastal front of the Arabian Peninsula.

Cyclones have a history of developing from the Indian Ocean in the warmer waters surrounding the equator, but there is growing concern that sea surface temperatures across the globe are rising. Significantly warmer ocean waters will likely produce more extreme weather, even for water bodies that generally are known to produce cyclones and hurricanes (like the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean). However, an increase in global sea surface temperatures could see extreme weather occur from oceans and seas not historically prone to creating them. This has been the case for the Pacific Ocean, where hurricanes rarely form and make landfall. Historically, the Mediterranean Sea has had similar experiences: it would be unusual for cyclones or medicanes (the term used to refer to cyclones from the Mediterranean Sea) to form and make landfall with severe intensity. But with the amplification of climate change enhancing warming in oceans and seas, both the Pacific and the Mediterranean could see such effects in the future.

An indicator of what a future with extreme weather from the Mediterranean Sea would look like came in September 2023, when Storm Daniel made landfall in eastern Libya. Developing as a medicane and following its trajectory from Greece, Storm Daniel descended into the coastal Libyan city of Derna, causing torrential rainfall and severe flooding. But the tragedy of Derna was not limited to these initial hydrological impacts of extreme weather. The combination of an incredibly large amount of rainfall and the country’s aging and neglected infrastructure led to the collapse of two dams upstream of Derna—Derna Dam and Mansour Dam. The outcome of that critical failure of water infrastructure was nothing short of catastrophic. Entire neighborhoods and large parts of the city of Derna literally washed out to sea under the massive release of water from these collapsed dams, further inundating a city already submerged with floodwaters. The death toll from this climate calamity is in excess of 10,000 people, and that figure is expected to rise as an equally large number of missing people are still unaccounted for.

It is clear that the warming of the oceans and seas surrounding MENA has direct implications when it comes to producing extreme weather that can affect the countries of the region. But in conjunction with these short-term, yet intense and potentially more frequent, weather events is another more long-term and incremental impact from the warming of the oceans: sea level rise. The threat of sea level rise will only continue to increase in the future, as the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicated that sea level rise due to ocean warming from greenhouse gas–driven global warming will continue for centuries. What is equally alarming is that even if global warming is curbed by fully mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, the coastal encroachment resulting from sea level rise at that point in time will be irreversible for further centuries.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE CLIMATE/WATER NEXUS ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

The regional climate effects of global warming on both land and sea have direct consequences for managing the region’s water supply, water demand, and water infrastructure. Warming is a key driver of drought conditions, especially for surface water systems. Significantly warmer conditions affect surface water systems in several ways. For surface water systems that rely on water being generated from higher-elevation precipitation and snowpack (which is the case for the Nile River, the Tigris and Euphrates River System, and the Jordan River), climate change can reduce the volume of water that is generated from these higher-elevation headwaters. Because warming can lessen the amount and rate of precipitation that occurs in these higher elevations, the smaller snowpack and subsequent snowmelt from the headwaters would reduce the flow of these rivers. A reduction in snowpack can occur primarily when some of that snowpack sublimates (changes into water vapor directly) owing to extreme heat, as opposed to turning into snowmelt. Also, with higher regional temperatures, the rate of evaporation will likely increase, resulting in less water available downstream as the river experiences elevated evaporation along its route towards its terminus. For countries in the region that utilize a surface water supply source, this reduction in available surface water will cause them to shift more of their reliance on other sources of water supply—placing pressure on alternative sources of water to meet this shortfall.

Warming will also have an effect on water demand in the region. The three broad sectors of water demand are urban or residential water use for human consumption (including for drinking water and sanitation), agricultural water use to support food production, and industrial water use (such as for manufacturing, commercial uses, and energy generation). Rising temperatures in the region have the potential to significantly inflate water demand from these different water consumption sectors as a consequence of their unique water needs.

Agriculture is the largest consumer of water globally, on average amounting to 70 percent of water use. This statistic also holds true for MENA, where most countries’ agricultural water use as a percent of total water withdrawals exceeds 50 percent. In Morocco, Sudan, and Yemen, agricultural water use is close to or higher than 90 percent of total water used. With increased warming, the rate of evapotranspiration from irrigated crops also increases. To counteract this evaporative loss of water from crops due to higher temperatures, irrigation requirements per crop type must also increase to ensure sufficient water has been applied during the growing season. The largest sectoral consumer of water thus will require even more water to meet regional food production needs.

Urban water use (which includes domestic and residential water consumption for drinking water needs and sanitation) accounts for a significantly smaller portion of total water demand in the region (on average approximately 8 percent of freshwater use). But as with agricultural water use, urban water use is also influenced by the region’s warming climate. Inflated urban water use can be linked to the urban heat island effect, where daytime heat from sunlight and warm emissions from vehicles and air conditioners are trapped by heat-absorbing infrastructure and materials (like asphalt in roads). Urban areas also tend to have less natural and green areas, which help to diffuse some of the absorbed heat. During periods of extreme heat, the urban heat island effect can push urban water consumption to higher levels, as urban residents use more drinking water to cool down from the heat and apply more water to maintain green natural spaces in cities.

Another factor that is progressively boosting urban water use is the rate of population growth in the MENA region. In 2022, the average annual population growth across the region was 1.9 percent, with Syria and Yemen leading the annual urban population growth of individual countries at 4.8 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. Compared to regional annual urban population growth rates in excess of 4 percent pre-1990, the current figure seems modest, but future population growth projections paint a different picture. By 2050, half of MENA countries will see their total populations grow by over 50 percent compared to their population size in 2015. Three nations in particular—Iraq, Palestine, and Sudan—will more than double their population size from 2015.

Impacts to industrial water use are also expected to occur with enhanced regional warming, especially for water needed for energy generation. Hydropower generation is directly affected, as surface river systems with hydropower plants will see reductions in river flows (at the headwaters) owing to higher levels of evaporation. Additionally, water is a critical component of power generation in thermoelectric plants, primarily for cooling purposes to produce electricity more efficiently. Water scarcity as a consequence of climate change can therefore severely constrain a power plant’s ability to efficiently and optimally generate electricity.

Water infrastructure is a critical component of any water management system, as it is the means by which water is transmitted, stored, or treated, to connect the water supply from source to utilization. Unfortunately, several MENA countries do not have reliable and efficient water infrastructure. For example, more than 50 percent of Jordan’s drinking water supply is lost because of water leakages and illegal theft of water from the water transmission network. Similarly, Lebanon is experiencing water system losses of 40 percent as a consequence of illegal water connections and inadequate maintenance of its water transmission network.

The region’s water infrastructure will be even more vulnerable due to the effects of climate change. Extreme heat, extreme weather, and sea level rise threaten the reliability and durability of water storage, treatment, and transmission infrastructure. As higher temperatures from warming elevate evaporation rates, reservoirs and dams used for surface water storage (such as the Aswan High Dam in Egypt or Atatürk Dam in Türkiye) will lose more of their stored water to evaporation. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat over time can reduce the lifespan of critical water infrastructure such as dams, water treatment plants, desalination plants, and water transmission pipelines and canals, thereby increasing the risk of infrastructure failure if adequate repair and maintenance is not implemented.

Extreme weather is an even more immediate threat to critical water infrastructure. High winds, intense rainfall, and flash flooding from severe thunderstorms and cyclones can cause sufficient structural damages that will either force water infrastructure operations offline for repair or, in an extreme case, lead to their catastrophic and irreparable failure (such as what happened to the dams in Derna, Libya). Other types of extreme weather, like the frequently occurring dust storms of the Arabian Peninsula, can also damage water infrastructure.

The future viability of existing coastal water infrastructure and resources is also at risk from the longer-term ramifications of sea level rise. As sea level rise continues unabated in the span of decades and even centuries (as suggested in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), encroaching seawater will likely inundate and submerge critical water infrastructure such as desalination and water treatment plants along MENA coasts. The corresponding losses of nonconventional water supplies and the ability to produce drinking water from nonpotable sources would be disastrous for the region. It would hurt the GCC countries in particular, as they rely disproportionately on desalinated water to meet their consumption needs. Incremental sea level rise also propagates seawater intrusion into groundwater aquifers near the coast and pushes salty seawater into the coastal outlets of rivers—a problem that is already happening in the Nile River Delta along the Mediterranean in Egypt and the Shatt al-Arab outlet of the Tigris-Euphrates River System to the Arabian Gulf in Iraq.

Besides the water management challenges posed by inadequate water supply, inflated water demand, and precarious water infrastructure integrity, the region could contend with a possible public health crisis from the poor quality of much of its freshwater. As water supplies dwindle and drinking water needs increase because of the effects of warming, disenfranchised segments of the region’s population that live in rural areas or refugee camps, and cannot financially afford to acquire adequate supplies of drinking water, may make difficult and dangerous decisions when it comes to meeting their water needs. This scenario has played out in Syria, where people who are desperate for water have extracted contaminated water from the Euphrates River and utilized it without proper water treatment. Consequently, rural Syria has seen several outbreaks of waterborne illnesses and diseases, the most recent of which is a cholera epidemic that has caused fatalities in the local population.

CONCLUSION

When it comes to the climate-driven water security challenges of the MENA region, several key messages are clear.

Water scarcity and water stress. The region is naturally prone to arid and dry conditions, leading to a chronic state of water scarcity. Limited freshwater supplies and growing demand for water have resulted in elevated levels of water stress across MENA countries.

Regional differences in water stress. Water stress varies across the region, owing primarily to differences in access to freshwater and nonconventional water sources. Countries with access to renewable water supplies have some advantage, while others rely heavily on nonconventional sources like desalination.

The importance of desalination. Desalination has become a crucial water augmentation strategy for mitigating water scarcity in the region. GCC countries in particular mostly rely on desalination for drinking water needs. However, this method is cost- and energy-intensive and could pose some long-term environmental concerns.

Water quality challenges. Poor water quality in freshwater sources poses public health risks, especially in rural areas. Contaminated water sources have led to outbreaks of waterborne diseases.

Groundwater depletion. Groundwater aquifers are a significant source of freshwater, especially in arid regions like the Arabian Peninsula. But overextraction of groundwater is depleting these aquifers.

Transboundary water conflicts. Transboundary water management challenges, particularly in the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates River Basins, have strained relations among riparian nations. The construction of dams and reduced river flows have created tensions, posing a threat to regional stability.

Climate change amplifies water issues. Climate change is exacerbating water insecurity by increasing the frequency and severity of droughts. This new climate reality threatens to widen the gap between water supply and demand, compounding existing water scarcity issues.

Climate change and extreme weather. Climate change has brought about extreme heat waves, severe storms, and cyclones in the region. These events have serious implications for water infrastructure, including reservoirs, dams, and desalination plants.

Sea level rise. In the long term, rising sea levels are threatening coastal water infrastructure, such as desalination plants and water treatment plants. Seawater intrusion into groundwater aquifers and coastal river outlets is also a growing concern.

Impact on water demand. Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration rates, leading to higher water demands in agriculture and urban areas. Population growth will inflate future urban water consumption, particularly in rapidly growing cities.

Overall, the MENA region faces a multifaceted water crisis that is exacerbated by climate change. Desalination has provided some reprieve to the region’s water deficit, but it comes with its own set of environmental and economic challenges. Transboundary water disputes, groundwater depletion, and the vulnerability of water infrastructure to extreme weather events are pressing issues that require urgent attention. As the region grapples with these complex challenges, addressing water scarcity and improving water management will be immensely important for ensuring the stability, sustainability, and the well-being of its populations in the face of a changing climate.

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Mohammed Mahmoud
Mohammed Mahmoud is a water resources management and climate adaptation policy expert and the founding director of the Climate and Water Program at the Middle East Institute. He regularly provides expert analysis on climate change and water security issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

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How smart technology is helping make sustainable living a reality

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On Innovation news network Lucy Han of ABB takes us inside a new ‘smart community’ near the Swedish capital of Stockholm, an example of how new advances in energy management and people-focused technology are helping residents directly manage their carbon footprint – while enjoying the very best of modern community living.  It’s all about How smart technology is helping make sustainable living a reality.

© shutterstock/metamorworks

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How smart technology is helping make sustainable living a reality

By Lucy Han

Reducing energy costs is now a leading concern for European residents. Modern dwellers also want better carbon credentials combined with smart technology and home solutions that offer ease of use, access, and control so they can enjoy the very best of energy-smart, high-tech living.

As industrial systems are being digitalised and decarbonised as part of the global clean energy transition, so are residential buildings being transformed. This ushers in a new era of connected communities populated by eco-savvy residents who want to maximise their use of self-generated energy and lead more meaningful lives through engagement with smart technology.

A new nexus of forces is in play here: a shift in the balance of power between the top-down organisation of resources associated with ‘smart cities’ and the bottom-up action from the new generation of ‘smart communities’ popping up worldwide (particularly in Europe). These movements intersect, creating a vision for the energy-efficient communities of the future.

Sustainability, cost-effectiveness, and comfort come at a cost, however. The demands on domestic infrastructure—from heat pumps and electric vehicles to 5G—are escalating, transforming consumer decision-making and consumption habits. Tracking and sharing energy data effectively is a priority.

In this article, we will discuss how the ability to generate and share energy is enabling communities to lower their carbon footprint and energy cost; how everything from washing machines to energy and security systems can now be monitored and controlled via a single mobile app; and how a smart community outside Stockholm is providing a blueprint for clean, collaborative, integrated living.

Sustainable living at the touch of a button

Regarding the future of connected living, COVID-19 effectively condensed decades of social and behavioural change into just a few months. For example, touch-free interfaces for enhanced hygiene began to be integrated into office buildings. At the same time, space management, intelligent lighting and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) solutions will all help improve employee comfort and productivity in a post-pandemic world.

These smart devices can also help homeowners reduce their energy bills, satisfy residents’ demand for flexibility and autonomy, and, critically, reduce the overall carbon footprint of buildings, which, with their high-power demand, account for around 40% of global energy consumption.

A pioneering new project in Sweden featuring ABB Smart Buildings, Samsung SmartThings, and other partners is part of a growing trend of industry organisations collaborating to develop and deploy innovative energy management, energy consumption, and carbon emissions reduction technologies. At the same time, a holistic, user-friendly smart home system boosts comfort and ease of use.

The homes at Brobyholm will be the first buildings in the world to access a single holistic smart home solution, with all products and devices – including the ABB-free@home® smart home system, ABB’s energy distribution and management technology – all connected with Samsung’s SmartThings platform.

All property assets, down to appliances and energy generation, are managed with Internet of Things (IoT) installation, with apps integrated into Brobyholm’s property management platform for holistic management at the community level. Based on the Matter industry standard, energy, motion, and door and window devices are controlled via the Samsung SmartThings app. ABB’s Matter-based Eve devices, which include energy sockets, door and window contacts, and motion sensors, can also be controlled via SmartThings.

The first-of-a-kind integrated system is designed to give residents the flexibility and autonomy they crave by covering every need: security, media, lighting, blinds, door entry, electricity outlets, energy, appliances, heating, ventilation, HVAC, sensors, cameras, TV, and energy management. Using insights derived from the various connected devices on their phones, a new breed of residents can manage their total energy usage—everything from turning off lights remotely to electric vehicle (EV) charging and load management.

Using a separate dashboard, the property operator can even run appliance diagnostics and efficiency maintenance by monitoring and controlling existing appliances in an emergency and informing residents about new devices installed in the unit for added maintenance and operation efficiency.

Brobyholm: a design for life

While we used to think of smart technology only in terms of individual homes, the pace of adoption among multi-dwelling, tower and multi-villa developments is gathering pace. At the new housing development in Brobyholm, the project partners have responded by expanding their vision for smart living from single flats or single house levels to include whole properties and the wider community.

That vision is bold: carbon-free living within a generation in a new ‘exurb’ featuring 500 (eventually reaching 2,000) predominantly single-family homes, where residents are empowered to make energy and carbon savings via enhanced access to fully connected smart home technology.

© Shutterstock/Summit Art Creations

To maximise potential, ABB’s InSite energy management system monitors and controls the main electrical assets, including photo voltaic (PV) generation, EV charging, and gas and water, to optimise home energy flows. In addition to the data collected from each household, forecast PV production, grid tariffs and consumption patterns are considered to balance the grid across the entire community through virtual energy sharing – significantly reducing costs for the families living there.

Based on energy data, the InSite energy management system manages loads to maximise the use of self-generated energy. For example, residents’ water tanks can be heated when there is surplus energy generated by solar panels—when solar power is low, devices will run in energy-saving mode. EVs located in designated mobility zones and equipped with ABB Terra AC charger technology can be used for energy optimisation and flexibility via ‘vehicle-to-everything’ technology.

Additionally, as all consumers and producers are connected under one easy-to-use platform, excess power can be sold on the flexibility market, generating income for all the inhabitants in Brobyholm.

The smart homes of the future

To accelerate the transition to net zero, we must consider issues like industry standardisation and regulatory certainty and the accessibility of technology, innovation, financing, and industry skills. The Net Zero Home project in Brobyholm and similar efforts help flesh this out in real time.

Brobyholm is a glimpse into the future of housing and sustainable living. It is made possible thanks to open technology, the adoption of industry standards, and vendors working together to innovate. Through this type of partnership and collaboration, it is possible to leverage cutting-edge technology and innovations that enhance people’s lives and reduce their reliance on precious global resources.

As the world’s demand for electricity grows, Brobyholm is an inspiring example of future-proofing and new thinking – from both project partners and energy consumers – and another exciting step forward in ABB’s ambition to create flexible, future-forward tech solutions.

Official Development Assistance: Flows increase again

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Official development assistance (ODA) is defined as government aid designed to promote the economic development and welfare of developing countries. Loans and credits for military purposes are excluded. And the Flows increase again as reported today by Mahmoud Mamart in El Watan-DZ.

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Official Development Assistance: Flows increase again

Official Development assistance provided by donors in 2023 reached a new high of $223.7 billion, up from $211 billion recorded in 2022, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in a statement. According to preliminary data from this international organization, supplier countries have increased aid flows to Ukraine and sent more humanitarian aid to developing countries.

The 1.8% increase in real terms in 2023 is the latest in a series of annual increases in official development assistance (ODA), provided by members of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC), the statement released this week added. This is the fifth year in a row that ODA has reached a record level. The total amount of aid for 2023 is up by a third compared to 2019 levels, reflecting the additional aid provided since the following crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Accounting for 0.37% of the combined gross national income (GNI) of DAC donors for the second year in a row, total ODA remains below the UN’s long-standing target of 0.7% ODA relative to GNI. Among DAC members, five countries – Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden – exceeded the UN target of 0.7% of GNI for ODA in 2023. The main providers of aid by volume were the United States, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and France.

In 2023, ODA increased in 14 of the 31 DAC member countries, and decreased in 17 countries, some due to lower refugee costs and others due to lower lending. ODA provided by the European Union institutions, which are also members of the DAC, has also increased.

Aid to Ukraine increased by 9% in 2023 to $20 billion, including $3.2 billion in humanitarian aid. In 2023, ODA also increased to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with preliminary estimates showing a 12% increase from  2022 to $1.4 billion. Of this total, $758 million was allocated to humanitarian assistance, which increased by 91% compared to 2022. Globally, humanitarian aid increased by 4.8% in 2023 to $25.9 billion. ODA used to cover the costs of hosting refugees in donor countries fell by 6.2% in 2023 to $31 billion.


Helping the most vulnerable

Official development assistance (ODA) remains an important, stable and reliable source of external financing for developing countries. Donor countries have provided a record level of international assistance for the fifth consecutive year, maintaining their support for long-term development priorities while helping countries around the world meet short-term needs related to shocks and external pressures,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.

“With slowing growth and rising debt servicing, developing countries face new fiscal pressures and a growing risk of debt distress. Long-term structural challenges exacerbate these pressures, such as climate change and widening economic and social disparities. We must therefore remain focused and determined to help the most vulnerable achieve their economic development and growth goals.” In a similar vein, Carsten Staur, Chair of the OECD-DAC, said that in the future, “donors will need to step up their support to the poorest and most vulnerable countries, particularly the least developed and sub-Saharan African countries. We need to focus more on efforts to help partner countries fight extreme poverty and climate change.”

According to preliminary data from the OECD, bilateral aid flows from DAC members to the group of least developed countries (LDCs) amounted to $37 billion, an increase of 3% in real terms in 2023 compared to 2022, when they recorded a decline of 6.2%. Mahmoud MamartDevelopment assistance provided by official donors in 2023 reached a new high of $223.7 billion, up from $211 billion recorded in 2022, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in a statement. According to preliminary data from this international organization, supplier countries have increased aid flows to Ukraine and sent more humanitarian aid to developing countries.

The 1.8% increase in real terms in 2023 is the latest in a series of annual increases in official development assistance (ODA), provided by members of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC), the statement released this week added. And this is the fifth year in a row that ODA has reached a record level. The total amount of aid for 2023 is up by a third compared to 2019 levels, reflecting the additional aid provided since the following crises of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Accounting for 0.37% of the combined gross national income (GNI) of DAC donors for the second year in a row, total ODA remains below the UN’s long-standing target of 0.7% ODA relative to GNI. Among DAC members, five countries – Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden – exceeded the UN target of 0.7% of GNI for ODA in 2023. The main providers of aid by volume were the United States, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and France. In 2023, ODA increased in 14 of the 31 DAC member countries, and decreased in 17 countries, some due to lower refugee costs and others due to lower lending. ODA provided by the European Union institutions, which are also members of the DAC, has also increased.

Aid to Ukraine increased by 9% in 2023 to $20 billion, including $3.2 billion in humanitarian aid. In 2023, ODA also increased to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with preliminary estimates showing a 12% increase from  2022 to $1.4 billion. Of this total, $758 million was allocated to humanitarian assistance, which increased by 91% compared to 2022. Globally, humanitarian aid increased by 4.8% in 2023 to $25.9 billion. ODA used to cover the costs of hosting refugees in donor countries fell by 6.2% in 2023 to $31 billion.


Helping the most vulnerable

“Official development assistance (ODA) remains an important, stable and reliable source of external financing for developing countries. Donor countries have provided a record level of international assistance for the fifth consecutive year, maintaining their support for long-term development priorities while helping countries around the world meet short-term needs related to shocks and external pressures,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.

“With slowing growth and rising debt servicing, developing countries face new fiscal pressures and a growing risk of debt distress. Long-term structural challenges exacerbate these pressures, such as climate change and widening economic and social disparities. We must therefore remain focused and determined to help the most vulnerable achieve their economic development and growth goals.” In a similar vein, Carsten Staur, Chair of the OECD-DAC, said that in the future, “donors will need to step up their support to the poorest and most vulnerable countries, particularly the least developed and sub-Saharan African countries. We need to focus more on efforts to help partner countries fight extreme poverty and climate change.”

According to preliminary data from the OECD, bilateral aid flows from DAC members to the group of least developed countries (LDCs) amounted to $37 billion, an increase of 3% in real terms in 2023 compared to 2022, when they recorded a decline of 6.2%.

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MENA’s fragmentation opportunity

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In an FDIntelligence Free Zone Focus Opinion article about all MENA’s fragmentation opportunity is assessed to enhance economic ties between neighbouring countries.

Image above for illustration – credit The World Bank

Opinion | MENA’s fragmentation opportunity

Mohamed Ibrahim Hafez is a researcher at the Centre for Policy, Citizenship and Society at Nottingham Trent University and a former policy advisor at the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones in Egypt.
In an era marked by unpredictability, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region stands at an important crossroads. Global trade structures are undergoing a dramatic transformation, with value chains fragmenting and geopolitical tensions bringing sharply into focus longstanding vulnerabilities in MENA economies. Against this backdrop, enhancing economic ties between neighbours presents great opportunities. Thanks to its abundant hydrocarbon resources, MENA is deeply interconnected with the global economy, exporting 34% of its gross domestic product (GDP) compared with a global average of 25.5%, according to data compiled by McKinsey. Yet despite shared language, culture and geographical proximity, Mena remains one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. Intraregional trade constitutes only 2.9% of the region’s GDP, significantly lower than the global average of 7.9% and far below the EU’s 22%.
At last year’s World Economic Forum, Ahmed Galal Ismail, CEO of Emirati retail conglomerate Majid Al Futtaim, argued that aligning MENA’s intraregional trade with the global average could unlock an additional $2.5tn in GDP, opening new prospects for private sector regionalisation. These figures indicate that previous free trade initiatives and economic cooperation mechanisms were inefficient to unlock MENA’s full potential. However, its number of special economic zones (SEZs) has surged from 47 in 2009 to more than 200 this year, according to data tracked by the OECD and Adrianople Group. This raises the prospect of using SEZs to create new linkages and regional production networks that would spark intra-regional trade.
Algeria took bold strides in 2022 to amend its investment law and create a legislative framework for SEZs. However, today it remains the sole country in the Mena region without any type of SEZ. In February, it took a big step towards changing this by announcing the implementation of a strategic vision to integrate its oil-based economy with neighbouring nations through the joint development of cross-border infrastructure and the establishment of five transnational SEZs with Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Mali and Niger. Since the inception of its Vision 2030 reform agenda, Saudi Arabia has launched four SEZs and is pushing forward with its NEOM mega-project which the government has also classified as a SEZ and which benefits from special investment regulations. The latter, which is poised to cover 26,500 sq km, will span Saudi’s borders with Egypt and Jordan, creating a new path for two-way economic linkages. In addition, after three decades of closed borders between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the two nations have embarked on a collaborative effort to boost bilateral trade. In 2020 they reopened the Arar land crossing, which laid the groundwork for their joint announcement last November of plans to launch a cross-border economic zone which will include a free trade zone, opening new trade gateways for both economies.
While some countries are individually or bilaterally leveraging SEZs for economic co-operation, a MENA-wide SEZ policy should be developed to maximise and quantify the impact of SEZs in forming regional value chains in the region. A collective effort towards regionalisation, including via SEZs, could help Mena leveraging its collective supply chain strengths, and foster a more resilient and predictable economy…