A study by Cisco dated June 2015 forecast that the number of users in the MENA region users numbers are expected to reach 425m by 2019,
The said document of Cisco is reproduced herewith but further reading are found at http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/VNI_Hyperconnectivity_WP.html
This document is part of the Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications. The document presents some of the main findings of Cisco’s global IP traffic forecast and explores the implications of IP traffic growth for service providers. For a more detailed look at the forecast and the methodology behind it, visit Cisco VNI: Forecast and Methodology, 2014–2019.
Annual global IP traffic will pass the zettabyte (1000 exabytes) threshold by the end of 2016, and will reach 2 zettabytes per year by 2019. By 2016, global IP traffic will reach 1.1 zettabytes per year, or 88.4 exabytes (nearly one billion gigabytes) per month, and by 2019, global IP traffic will reach 2.0 zettabytes per year, or 168 exabytes per month.
Global IP traffic has increased fivefold over the past five years, and will increase threefold over the next five years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2014 to 2019.
Busy-hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy-hour (or the busiest 60‑minute period in a day) Internet traffic increased 37 percent in 2014, compared with 29 percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.9 between 2014 and 2019, and average Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 3.2. Busy-hour Internet traffic will reach 1.4 petabits per second (Pbps) in 2019, and average Internet traffic will reach 414 terabits per second (Tbps).
Metro traffic surpassed long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 66 percent of total IP traffic by 2019. Metro traffic will grow more than twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2014 to 2019. The higher growth in metro networks is due in part to the increasingly significant role of content delivery networks (CDNs), which bypass long‑haul links and deliver traffic to metro and regional backbones.
Content delivery networks (CDNs) will carry nearly two-thirds of Internet traffic by 2019. Sixty-two percent of all Internet traffic will cross CDNs by 2019 globally, up from 39 percent in 2014.
Two-thirds of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2019. In 2014, only 40 percent of total IP traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2019 the non-PC share of total IP traffic will grow to 67 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 9 percent, and TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 17 percent, 65 percent, 62 percent, and 71 percent respectively.
Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2016. By 2016, wired devices will account for 47 percent of IP traffic, and Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 53 percent of IP traffic. In 2014, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic, at 54 percent.
Global Internet traffic in 2019 will be equivalent to 66 times the volume of the entire global Internet in 2005. Globally, Internet traffic will reach 37 gigabytes (GB) per capita by 2019, up from 15.5 GB per capita in 2014.
The number of devices connected to IP networks will be more than three times the global population by 2019. There will be more than three networked devices per capita by 2019, up from nearly two networked devices per capita in 2014. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 22 GB per capita by 2019, up from 8 GB per capita in 2014.
Broadband speeds will more than double by 2019. By 2019, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 42.5 Mbps, up from 20.3 Mbps in 2014.
Global Internet Video Highlights
It would take an individual more than 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2019. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2019.
Globally, IP video traffic will be 80 percent of all IP traffic (both business and consumer) by 2019, up from 67 percent in 2014. This percentage does not include the amount of video exchanged through peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will continue to be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2019.
Internet video to TV grew 47 percent in 2014. This traffic will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing fourfold by 2019. Internet video to TV will be 17 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2019, up from 16 percent in 2014.
Consumer VoD traffic will nearly double by 2019. The amount of VoD traffic in 2019 will be equivalent to 7 billion DVDs per month.
Global Mobile Highlights
Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 10-fold between 2014 and 2019. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 57 percent between 2014 and 2019, reaching 24.3 exabytes per month by 2019.
Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2014 to 2019. Global mobile data traffic was 4 percent of total IP traffic in 2014, and will be 14 percent of total IP traffic by 2019.
IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 44 percent between 2014 and 2019.
Summary of regional growth rates:
- IP traffic in North America will reach 49.7 exabytes per month by 2019; growing at a CAGR of 20 percent.
- IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 24.7 exabytes per month by 2019; growing at a CAGR of 21 percent.
- IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 54.4 exabytes per month by 2019; growing at a CAGR of 21 percent.
- IP traffic in Latin America will reach 12.9 exabytes per month by 2019; growing at a CAGR of 25 percent.
- IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 16.9 exabytes per month by 2019; growing at a CAGR of 33 percent.
- IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 9.4 exabytes per month by 2019; growing at a CAGR of 44 percent.
Note: Several interactive tools are available to allow you to create custom highlights and forecast charts by region, by country, by application, and by end-user segment (refer to the Cisco VNI Forecast Highlights tool and the Cisco VNI Forecast Widget tool).
Global Business Highlights
Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 20 percent from 2014 to 2019. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of 2 between 2014 and 2019.
Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 9 percent, compared with a CAGR of 20 percent for fixed business Internet and 51 percent for mobile business Internet.
Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 26 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 20 percent. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2018, at 9.5 exabytes per month. North America will be second, at 8.0 exabytes per month.