A report from the QNG underlines the fact that economic growth in the United States, the Eurozone, China and Emerging Markets (EMs) is likely to be slower in the fourth quarter on disinflationary pressures, while lower commodity prices may dent the outlook for selected GCC and Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries.
Emerging Markets growth continues to slow. The Brazilian government has reduced its official growth forecast to and for India’s Q3 real GDP growth slowed to 5. % in the third quarter (5.7% in Q2) Indonesia’s economy grew in Q the slowest rate in five years South Africa’s Q real GDP growth recovered ) on a resumption of platinum production but the underlying growth momentum remained anaemic. Russian real GDP rose 0.7%, but international sanctions and the recent decline in oil prices are likely to drive the economy into recession. Based on these latest statistics, we maintain our negative outlook for EMs, with a growth forecast of 2.5- 3.0% for 2014-
GCC Countries on the other hand still has a positive growth: KSA’s PMI index for October retreated (59.8) from its peak in September (61.8) on lower crude oil prices. At the same time, the UAE’s October PMI ) rose from its September dip, reaching a new record. This mixed response to lower oil prices suggest that the positive outlook for the region will remain. We therefore keep our growth forecast at 4.5-5.0% for 2014 and 5.0%-5.5% in 2015.
The situation in Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries is also positive: The Ebola virus outbreak is slowly being brought under control Nigeria’s economy continued to expand rapidly in Q3 (6.23%) on continued investments to diversify the economy. However, the impact of lower global commodity prices is likely to be negative in Q4 for both Nigeria and the rest of the subcontinent. Accordingly, we keep to our lower growth projections for the subcontinent of 6-6.5 % in 2014 and 6.5 -7 % in 2015.