Ban Ki-Moon


COP 21, ambitious and binding Agreement 

COP21, the climate conference, opens officially today Monday 30 November 2015 in Paris.

The main purpose of this ultimate conference is to bring together 196 stakeholders and 195 countries represented by about 150 of their heads of State, to try and agree on a limit to the rise of the global temperature above 2°C.

Indeed, the global warming ever increasing factor that if combined with the on-going desertification and wars that appear not to diminish particularly in the MENA region can have dramatic consequences.

Current investments in renewable energies at $310 billion in 2014 with $150 billion for solar, are planned to about $600 billion by 2020, do not compare with the estimated $4700 billion of the fossil fuels industry.

How to reverse the curve, what level for energy efficiency, how about the level of the carbon tax, and how to develop ecological industries?  An accord on these would be at this stage and possibly for ever an ambitious and binding agreement, perhaps unique in human history.

How to do it ?

Among many things there are regional integration, synchronization of public / private policies, new global governance and / or new model of world energy production / consumption.

In any case, the purpose of such conference is undeniably required, though it could be felt little late, to sorting out the urgent need for human activities generated impact on the earth climate.

This latter notion took a rather long time to come to be accepted by every concerned party.

It all started by an interesting report on sudden climate change scenarios and their implications for the United States was published in October 2003 under the direction of professors Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall Report commissioned by the US Ministry of Defense.

This report hypotheses on an abrupt climate change scenario that will be characterized generally by certain negative conditions; for instance, reduction in annual mean temperature by 2.75°C over Asia and North America and 3.3°C in Europe together with an annual increase in the average temperature of 2.2°C in Australia, South America and southern Africa all accompanied by droughts persisting throughout the next decades in vital agricultural regions.

The report examines how the scenario of this abrupt climate change could potentially destabilize the situation geopolitics, causing incidents, fighting and even wars because of shortage of resources such as lack of food due to a drop in world agricultural production, a decline in availability and amount of drinking water in key regions.  Unprecedented movements of precipitation, causing droughts and more frequent flooding and disruption in access to energy resources, due to the extent of the ice in the sea and storms.  According to this study, the ability to meet the above needs is reduced for local and global tensions could increase everywhere around the world, leading to two basic strategies.

The nations with the necessary means to do so could indeed build fortresses around their country, thus retaining their resources for themselves.

Less fortunate nations could trigger conflicts over access to food, drinking water and energy.

Even if greenhouse gas emissions are modest in the MENA countries as opposed to those of the developed world, these as the largest producers of oil that is fundamentally the main source of CO2.

These forecasts conducted in 2007 by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate an increase of the temperature in the range of 2°C in the next 15 to 20 years, and up to 4 to 6.5°C at the end of the century.  Even if none of above hopefully occur, the impact on the ground would at least be such that many countries have to redraw their coastline.

CO2 carbon dioxide emissions come from the burning of hydrocarbons – whether it be by car, in the kitchen or in a factory – and carbon dioxide (CO2) is released into the atmosphere.

The accumulation of CO2 warms up our planet.  There is now a general consensus within the scientific community that holds and maintains that if the global average temperature increases for more than 2°C in the 21st century, changes of climate of our planet will be of large-scale, irreversible and very possibly catastrophic.  On top of that, the increase in the average temperature should be accompanied by a decline of at least 20% of the rain precipitations.

Time is pressing and the possibilities for action are shrinking!